The 2024 domestic pear crop could be the smallest in nearly 60 years, and a huge apple carryover continued to tank summer’s prices, according to USDA.

The agency’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook was published Sept. 26.

Pear drop details

The USDA pear forecast this season is 520,000 tons, down 22% from last year due to weather conditions that led to production declines in California, Oregon and Washington.

That would be the smallest harvest since 1967, when the crop was 463,880 tons.

Washington usually leads the nation in production, but Oregon is expected to surpass it this season.

The 185,000-ton projection for Washington, down 31% from 2023, would be the state’s smallest crop since 1972 and its fourth consecutive year-over-year decline.

Lower production also reflects a downward trend in bearing acreage.

Oregon’s forecast of 210,000 tons, down 15%, would be the state’s lowest harvest since 2010.

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California growers are expected to produce 135,000 tons, down 17%, as rain during bloom hampered pollination.

Fresh pear prices were higher in June (up 24.6% over June 2023 to average 86 cents per pound) and July (up 15.5% to 85.5 cents per pound) thanks to the smaller crop.

Apple prices low

Apple grower prices lagged behind last season thanks to storage that was 24% above the previous season in June. The carryover also was 39% above the 5-year average.

Fresh apple prices averaged 67.5 cents per pound in June, down 19.6% from the same month the previous year, and 65.5 cents in July, a drop of 24.1%.

February’s price of 60.5 cents per pound was the lowest mark in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms in four years.

The apple consumer price index also was down 13% in August thanks to the large inventory.

While the U.S. apple crop is forecast at 11.1 billion pounds, down 2% from the previous year, that’s still 8% larger than the 5-year average.

Berry, grape prices up

Lower strawberry shipment volume out of California from mid-June to early July likely put upward pressure on grower prices compared to 2023, according to the report.

Fresh strawberries hit $1.60 per pound in June, up 33% from 2023, and $1.88 per pound in July, up 26.2%.

Grape prices also were up, averaging $1.65 per pound in June, 8.6% above the previous year, and $1.48 per pound in July, up 8.1%.

California strawberry and table grape production is expected to increase this year, which likely will put downward pressure on prices later in the season.

The average consumer price for strawberries was $2.34 per 12-ounce pint in August, down from $2.61 in August 2023.

California’s grape production is expected to reach 11.6 billion pounds, up 4% from 2023.

The Golden State’s grape crop consists of 62% wine grapes, 20% table grapes and 18% raisin grapes.

Washington grape production — split nearly evenly between wine and juice grapes — is expected to drop 10% to 610 million pounds.