The U.S. pistachio harvest hit 1 billion pounds for the first time in 2020.

The crop could reach nearly 2.1 billion pounds by 2031, according to a new report commissioned by American Pistachio Growers.

Richard Matoian, president of the organization, said the industry will need to rise to meet the challenges of increased production.

“We have large crops coming. We need to plan now and put campaigns in place to market those large crops,” he added.

Those extra nuts shaken from trees will fall into foreign markets instead of domestically, as 70% of American Pistachio Growers crop is exported, Matoian said.

The European Union is the organization’s biggest foreign market, followed by China and Hong Kong. India is a growth region American Pistachio Growers has targeted for about five years.

“Another area that we just started marketing in this year is Mexico. … We think that’s a gateway and an opportunity into South America,” Matoian said.

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New plantings

The report’s prediction is fueled by anticipated plantings on roughly 28,500 acres per year, which means total pistachio acreage by 2031 could be 811,300.

That extrapolation is based on new plantings per year over the last decade, which is likely to occur in the foreseeable future, according to an executive summary of the report.

The 2023 pistachio harvest is expected to be 1.36 billion pounds off 583,400 total acres.

The bearing pistachio acreage in 2023 is pegged at 453,700 — double what it was a decade ago — and that’s expected to reach 668,850 in 2031.

A shift to pistachios

Overall, pistachio acreage, both bearing and nonbearing land, already has increased fivefold over the past 20 years, according to the executive summary.

Matoian said that in recent decades many California farmers switched to growing pistachios because they wanted a commodity that required less water and less labor. Pistachios also can do well with poor soils and poor water quality.

“Fortunately, as more acres got planted, demand continued to expand worldwide,” Matoian said.

That’s in part due to marketing campaigns that touted the nutritional benefits of pistachios, which are a good source of protein and high in fiber, potassium and healthy fats.

Alternating production

The report, conducted by Tootelian Co. of California, focused on California, which represents 99% of U.S. pistachio production. Pistachios are also grown in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.

The forecast takes into account the alternate bearing characteristics of pistachios.

Pistachio tree production tends to alternate with a high yield year followed by a low yield year. This season is an “on” year, and 2031 will be, as well.

In 2024, an “off” year, the pistachio harvest is forecast to be 1.01 billion pounds.

Pistachio trees typically provide measurable production beginning in the sixth year and increase into the 11th year, when factors other than age dictate harvest, according to the executive summary.

Another Tootelian Co. study found that the pistachio industry contributed $6.4 billion dollars annually to the California economy.

In 2022, pistachios were the seventh largest agricultural commodity in California, with $1.86 billion in revenue, according to state data.

The top category was milk and dairy, followed by grapes, cattle and calves, almonds, lettuce and strawberries.

American Pistachio Growers is a nonprofit trade association representing more than 865 growers and processors.