Thanks to a solid bloom, California’s almond crop this season is expected to reach 3 billion pounds, 21% above 2023, according to a report released May 10 by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service.

If the forecast holds true, it would be the industry’s second largest harvest. The record crop from 2020 was 3.115 billion pounds.

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Growers experienced mostly favorable conditions for the first half of the growing season and excellent weather from late February into early March helped boost pollination.

Orchards had little to no threat of frost damage and water allocation was not an issue for the second year in a row.

“This larger crop estimate is what the industry expected after a productive bloom this spring, but it’s also a testament to the hard work done by almond farmers throughout California during difficult times,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California.

“Demand for California almonds around the globe continues to grow and our almond farmers constantly deliver on producing high quality California almonds to meet that demand,” Turner added, in a news release.

In a news conference last month, Turner said the Almond Board of California will pursue growth by seeking more export opportunities and creating new products.

Large growth

The USDA’s almond forecast is based on a survey conducted from a sample of 500 almond growers.

In July, the agency will release a follow-up estimate based on actual almond counts in approximately 1,000 orchards.

Almond production has grown massively in recent decades. In 2014, the harvest was 1.87 billion pounds, and two decades ago, it was 1 billion.

In 1994, the industry’s harvest was 735 million pounds.

The price per pound has surged and then plummeted over the years. It hit $1.34 in 1994, rose to $2.21 in 2004, climbed to $4 in 2014, and sank to $1.64 in 2023.

The value of production followed a similar rise and fall, hitting a peak of $7.39 billion in 2014. In 2023, the crop was worth $3.88 billion.

RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness predicted a rebound in almond prices in the next year to 18 months thanks to lower ending stocks and a return in global demand.

Did acreage dip?

The state’s almond bearing acres was estimated at 1.38 million, unchanged from the previous season. That represents the most bearing acres ever for the industry.

However, an April report from Land IQ, a research and consulting firm, found that bearing almond acreage in California dropped about 600 acres from the previous year to 1.373 million acres.

That slight dip of less than half a percent marked the first potential decrease for almond acres since 1995.

The California almond industry first surpassed 1 million bearing acres in 2017. A decade ago, mature almond orchards covered 930,000 acres and in 2004 they were 570,000 acres.

The predicted yield of 2,170 pounds per acre was up 380 pounds from 2023. The previous season’s yield per acre was the lowest since 2005.