A USDA report forecasts the global harvest of almonds will increase in 2023-24, while the walnut crop will remain unchanged due to flat output from top producer China.

The U.S. almond and walnut crops are each forecast to climb 1%, but American almond exports are expected to jump 6% and the nation’s walnut exports should skyrocket 15%, according to the report.

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“Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade” was released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on Oct. 26.

U.S. pistachio production data for this season wasn’t available.

Almond increase

Global almond production was expected to rise 3% to 1.5 million metric tons shelled based on higher output from the United States, Australia and the European Union.

Worldwide consumption was predicted to increase 6% to 1.6 million tons.

Global exports were forecast to rise 5% thanks to increased shipments to China and India.

U.S. production is expected to hit 1 million tons as higher bearing acres and kernel weights more than offset fewer nuts per tree, according to the report.

Rainfall and stormy conditions hindered pollination this season in the United States. Cooler temperatures continued through the early summer and delayed maturity of the crop.

U.S. exports are forecast at 900,000 tons largely on demand from China and India, drawing inventories down from last year’s elevated ending level.

Foreign growers

Australian almond production dropped by nearly 25% in 2022-23 largely due to quarantine measures related to an invasive mite, the Varroa destructor, that spread to the country’s honeybees.

The pest had previously spread to every other major western honeybee area of the world.

In September, the country announced that eradication of the honeybee mite wasn’t feasible and the response transitioned to pest management, according to the report.

Without periodic intervention and treatment, infested western honeybee colonies tend to collapse within a few years, the report states.

Industry experts are hopeful Australia will be able to manage the mite as successfully as other countries.

This season, Australia’s almond crop is expected to rebound 28% to 140,000 tons.

EU production is forecast to rebound 40% to 148,000 tons as Spanish orchards recover from the past season’s droughts.

Walnuts holding steady

The forecast for global walnut production is unchanged at 2.7 million tons, and gains in the United States and Chile should offset EU losses, according to the report.

China’s forecast of 1.4 million tons is based on favorable growing conditions and unchanged area, and its exports are expected to climb 3% to a record 245,000 tons.

Worldwide walnut consumption also should hold steady at 2.7 million tons, the report states.

Global exports are predicted to rise 6% to 1 million tons largely due to rebounding shipments form the United States.

U.S. production is forecast at 689,000 tons as higher yields more than offset fewer bearing acres, which had been expanding since 2000-01.

Exports from the United States are forecast to jump to 450,000 tons with higher shipments to the EU, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

EU walnut production is expected to dip 8% to 150,000 tons due to drought conditions in France.