The USDA has predicted this season’s California walnut harvest will hit 670,000 tons, down 19% from the record breaking crop of 2023.

A mild winter is partly to blame, as well as a drop in acreage.

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An industry representative said in a previous interview that walnut trees are alternate bearing and had an “on” year the previous season.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service released its objective measurement report for the walnut industry Sept. 4.

The forecast is based on 370,000 bearing acres, down 4% from 2023.

Bearing acres peaked at 400,000 in 2022, but has dropped for two consecutive years.

Still, the bearing acreage for 2024 is up 73% over 20 years earlier.

Mild winter, heavy spring rains

Walnuts require a relatively large number of chill hours, but that didn’t occur this winter.

Some instances of blight showed in walnut groves because of heavy spring rains and record high temperatures in California forced growers to increase irrigation.

Quality and nut set appear to have declined for 2024.

Survey data indicated an average nut set per tree of 761, down 24% from the previous season.

Objective measurement background

An initial estimate for walnut production from earlier this summer had the crop down just 6.5% from 2023.

Economists anticipated that reduced production would spur upward pressure on prices.

The USDA walnut objective measurement report is the more definitive prediction. The report began in 1958 to fulfill industry needs for an accurate walnut production forecast prior to harvest.

The survey was conducted July 22 through Aug. 22. More than 1,400 trees were sampled from 711 orchards.