La Nina hangs on, expected to stick through summer

Published 12:45 pm Saturday, March 12, 2022

The reigning La Nina has more staying power than expected and likely will stay through the spring and into the summer, influencing U.S. temperatures and precipitation for the upcoming months, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says.

The Pacific Ocean cooled in early March, strengthening a La Nina that formed last summer and had been expected to fade in the spring. Compared to a month ago, chances are nearly double that the La Nina will still prevail in June, July and August, according to the climate center.

While a La Nina can worsen drought in the southern tier of the U.S., it’s linked to cool and wet weather in the Northwest.

Washington State Climatologist Nick Bond said the continuing La Nina could help the snowpack have a spring resurgence. The statewide snowpack has been dropping this month and was down to 85% of average on March 11.

“Our mountains should do pretty well,” Bond said. “I wouldn’t be surprised that in a month people, not necessarily in agriculture, are grousing that the spring is really cold and wet.”

In February, the climate center gave the La Nina a 27% chance of persisting through the summer. Now, the center rates the chances at 53%.

Bond said a La Nina has more effect on Washington winters than summers.

“By the time you get to summer, there are some impacts, but they are weaker,” he said. “I’m not sure it’s going to be that big of a deal.”

In the short term, the National Weather Service predicted Friday that Washington, Oregon and Idaho will be cooler and wetter than average over the next two weeks. Northern California’s weather will be near normal, the service predicted.

As expected during a La Nina, Washington’s snowpack was strong early in the winter and was 107% of normal on Jan. 1. It declined to 95% of normal by March 1, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The snowpack typically peaks in April. It’s been falling behind average all month.

NRCS water supply specialist Scott Pattee said Friday that he’s not optimistic the snowpack will recover and get back to average.

“You can’t really rule anything out, but I think the odds are pretty slim,” he said.

The climate center predicted a wet January, February and March for Washington. “That has not played true at all,” Pattee said. “We should be receiving snow in the mountains every day this month.”

Bond said that even if La Nina drops snow at high elevations, it may not provide much relief for low-elevation parts of Central and Eastern Washington that remain in severe or extreme drought.

“Some places that are more in trouble now don’t necessarily do as great during La Nina,” he said.

Drought grips the entire West. Some 50% of Washington is in drought, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported March 10. Eight other Western states are suffering more.

Some 90% of Oregon and 100% of California are in a drought. Drought covers 84% of Idaho.

The climate center will issue a new seasonal outlook for April, May and June on March 17. The ocean-surface temperatures that trigger a La Nina — or its opposite, an El Nino — drive the three-month forecasts.

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