The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projected Monday that Yakima River basin irrigators with junior water rights will receive 72% of their full allotments between April and September.

The forecast was the first of the year and will be updated April 4. The water outlook could get better or worse depending on the weather. A wet end to February boosted the early forecast.

“That helped us a lot,” said Chris Lynch, the bureau’s river operations engineer. “Hopefully, we’ll get some bursts like that in March, and it will help us some more.”

Irrigators with senior water rights will receive about 1 million acre-feet, leaving about 894,000 acre-feet for irrigators with junior water rights to share, the bureau predicted.

The bureau’s five reservoirs store water to irrigate about 464,000 acres in south-central Washington. The reservoirs are low, holding only 65% of the average volume for early March.

The reservoirs were low heading into the fall and haven’t caught up. Rainfall at the reservoirs has been 88% of average since Oct. 1.

Snow melts into the reservoirs, but the basin’s snowpack is low, too. It was 77% of average on Monday.

The reclamation bureau projected that irrigators could still end up with 100% of their full allotments if the weather stays wet and cold. Allotments could drop to as little as 47% if the weather turns dry and warm.

The National Weather Service forecasts the first half of March will be wetter than average, but the rest of the spring will be warmer and drier than normal.

A warm spring would cause the snowpack to melt early, temporarily swelling streams and rivers but leaving less water in reserve for summer irrigation.

The Washington Department of Ecology considers declaring droughts in watersheds where summer water supplies are expected to be below 75%. The declaration removes barriers to leasing water and using emergency well.

Statewide, Washington’s snowpack was 71% of average Monday. A low snowpack is typical in Washington during an El Nino winter.

Oregon’s snowpack was 105% of normal, while California’s was 109%. In Idaho, the snowpack was 73% of normal north of the Salmon River and 102% south of it, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.