Hosting a Thanksgiving feast for a party of 10 this month could cost 20% more than last year, according to a national survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The survey found U.S. consumers will pay, on average, $64.05 for a Thanksgiving meal for 10, up from last year’s average of $53.31.

The estimates are based on a meal including turkey, stuffing, pie crusts, pumpkin pie with whipped cream, coffee with milk, dinner rolls with butter, peas, sweet potatoes, vegetables, cranberries and miscellaneous ingredients.

Prices vary by region. The cost for a classic Thanksgiving meal will be most affordable in the South, at $58.42, followed by the Northeast at $64.02, Midwest at $64.26 and West at $71.37.

Several factors have contributed to the increased meal cost, said AFBF chief economist Roger Cryan.

Inflation is a major factor. General inflation has recently run between 7% to 9%, and the latest Consumer Price Index report showed the price of food consumed at home has increased 12% over the past year.

Supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine have also spiked food prices.

The turkey – the centerpiece of many Thanksgiving dinners – will gobble up much of the holiday budget this year for reasons beyond inflation. The Farm Bureau estimates a 16-pound bird will cost $28.96 this year, or $1.81 per pound, up 21% from last year.

The higher cost can be attributed to “a slightly smaller flock this year, increased feed costs and lighter processing weights,” said Cryan.

The overall flock is smaller because highly pathogenic avian influenza this year killed more than 6 million turkeys, according to USDA.

By August, turkey production was down 9.4% from a year earlier and processing weights fell below normal levels as growers marketed younger birds.

Although the Farm Bureau’s price-check survey Oct. 18-31 found the going price for a 16-pound turkey to be $28.96, that was before most grocery stores started featuring whole frozen turkeys at lower prices, so economists say shoppers should be able to find cheaper birds now.

Though consumers face steeper costs, economists say higher food prices don’t always translate into higher farm profits.

According to USDA’s latest Agricultural Prices report, compared to September 2021, farmers this September received higher prices for grain, dairy, poultry and many vegetables. However, farmers simultaneously faced rising input costs, paying year-over-year 20% more for feed, 30% more for fertilizer, 45% more for chemicals, 28% more for fuels and 15% more for machinery.

“Farmers are working hard to meet growing demands for food – both here in the U.S. and globally – while facing rising prices for fuel, fertilizer and other inputs,” said Cryan.

Farmers also generally receive a small slice of each food dollar.

For every dollar Americans spent on Thanksgiving meals last November, farmers and ranchers earned about 11.5 cents, the National Farmers Union calculated, and nearly every year, the farmer’s share of the food dollar shrinks.

About a decade ago, according to USDA, American farmers received 17.6 cents of every $1 consumers spent on food. This year, a USDA statement said “just 14 cents of the food dollar go to producers on average.”

In 2022, the farmer’s share of the Thanksgiving meal is: 

• Turkey: Retail Price – $1.99/lb., Farmer’s Share – $0.06/pound
• Sweet Corn, 16 oz. frozen: Retail Price – $2.59, Farmer’s Share – $0.44
• Stuffing, 12 oz. box: Retail Price – $3.59, Farmer’s Share – $0.13
• Boneless Ham, 2 lbs.: Retail Price – $12.98, Farmer’s Share – $1.00
• Mashed Potatoes: 5 lb. bag: Retail Price – $5.99, Farmer’s Share – $1.30
• Apple Pie Filling: 21 oz. can: Retail Price – $4.99, Farmer’s Share – $1.03 

Source: National Farmers Union