U.S. greenhouse gases from the energy sector would drop by less than 1% by 2050 if the nation stops building interstate gas pipelines, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

While carbon emissions from natural gas would decrease 4.4%, total emissions would go down by only 0.7% as energy producers burned more coal to offset reduced natural gas supplies, according to a new EIA analysis.

“The relatively small effect on CO2 emissions … is due to our forecast of increased coal-fired power generation, which would be more carbon intensive than the natural gas-fired generation it displaces,” the EIA posted on its website Monday.

The EIA, a federal agency, reported in March that based on current laws, and economic and demographic trends U.S. natural gas production will grow by almost 24% by 2050.

The agency, however, noted that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission announced in March that it will consider climate change in approving future interstate pipelines.

Interstate natural gas pipeline capacity grew considerably between 1990 and 2020, but several large lines have been canceled in recent years following legal and public opposition, according to the EIA.

If the U.S. adopts a permanent moratorium on new pipelines beginning in 2024, natural gas spot prices will be 11% higher in 2050 than the baseline forecast, the EIA estimated.

Natural gas is a key ingredient in manufacturing nitrogen fertilizer. Fertilizer prices spiked in late 2021 alongside rising natural gas prices, according to the USDA Economic Research Service.

The cost of ammonia more than doubled between 2000 and 2006 as the price of natural gas trended upward, according to the USDA.

Under a moratorium, natural gas production would decline 4.6% by 2050, and consumption would fall 4.3% as more electricity was generated by renewable resources, nuclear plants and coal, the EIA projected.

Greenhouse gases from energy-related fuel sources would fall by 34 million metric tons, the EIA estimated. The reduction would equal about one-third of Washington’s carbon output.

Under current laws and trends, natural gas production in the U.S. will exceed domestic demand by 25% by 2050, the EIA projects. Much of the excess production probably would be exported as liquified natural gas, the agency reported.

The U.S. became Europe’s top natural gas supplier in 2021, moving past Qatar and Russia, according to the EIA. The U.S. supplied 26% of Europe’s imported natural gas compared to 24% from Qatar and 20% from Russia.

A majority of Europe’s liquified natural gas imports in January came from the U.S., the agency said.