The U.S. is in the midst of an energy overhaul, with electricity use expected to surge in the next decade and dramatic changes underway for how electricity is generated, stored and moved.

Many energy experts are worried the U.S. is phasing out fossil-fueled energy resources too quickly, before renewables have taken their place. Whether future supply, meaning electricity generated, will meet consumer demand is a matter of debate among researchers, but many are concerned the risk of rolling blackouts could intensify in the coming years.

Flicking a switch and having confidence the light will turn on may not always be something Americans take for granted.

Demand for electricity is rising largely because some states and the federal government have adopted policies that mandate electric vehicle adoption. Meanwhile, how electricity gets produced is changing because governments are requiring power companies to cut back on fossil-fueled electricity generation and replace it with clean energy.

In a nutshell: Governments are manipulating both power demand and supply.

“Here we are heading into a new era of surging electrical demand and retiring traditional resources,” said Sarah Edmonds, president and CEO of Western Power Pool, an association aimed at ensuring its member utilities keep the lights on.

Jeffrey Dagle, chief electrical engineer for the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and a transmission reliability expert, is concerned about the pace of the energy transition.

“If we’re retiring conventional power plants before we really have their replacements up and running, that’s where we have those gaps (electricity outages),” he said. “My fear is the pace of change, the rate of change. I think we’re going in the right direction, but the pace concerns me.”

Rising electricity use

Electricity demand has stayed flat for decades, according to a study by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. That is about to change. The study predicts “total demand for electricity could grow dramatically in the future.”

Why?

“Transportation is the driver,” said David Victor, a professor and energy expert at the University of California-San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy.

Federal and state climate policies are propelling Americans toward electric vehicles. Last year, for example, regulators in California, Oregon and Washington approved plans to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035.

Aaron Orlowski, spokesman for Eugene Water and Electric Board, Oregon’s largest customer-owned utility, and Seth Wiggins, who manages strategy and integrated resource planning at Portland General Electric, expect electric cars to increase electricity demand.

Experts say other factors will also increase demand, including the growth of data centers, energy-intensive cryptocurrency “mining,” the switch from gas to electric heating, manufacturing, industrial uses, population growth and people using more in-house appliances.

Just how much demand will increase remains unknown.

“Energy forecasting is always a tricky business,” said David Fedor, a research analyst on the Hoover Institution’s Schultz-Stephenson Task Force on Energy Policy.

The researchers and utility leaders Capital Press interviewed all had different estimates, though most guessed peak electricity use will be about 20% higher by 2033.

In the longer term, experts predict demand will continue growing. A 2022 Hoover Institution article said most studies anticipate at least a doubling in the supply of electricity that will be needed and a doubling in the grid size by 2050 under net-zero climate goals.

Demand could be even higher. Forecasters often underestimate future electricity use, according to a paper in the journal Energy Policy.

Changing resources

Supply is also changing.

Anjan Bose, an electrical power engineering researcher and professor at Washington State University, said that while using an electric vehicle is cleaner on the driver’s end, if the electricity that powers the car comes mostly from fossil fuels, overall greenhouse gas emissions will stay the same.

He noted that, according to the Energy Information Administration, about 60% of America’s electricity generation last year came from fossil fuels.

Reducing emissions, then, would require the generation mix to change. That is precisely what government officials are pushing for through policies and regulations. For example, in 2021, then Oregon Gov. Kate Brown signed House Bill 2021 into law, which requires electricity providers to meet specific emissions targets. Western states also plan to close more coal plants and similar facilities soon.

Utility companies, in response, are rushing to buy or build new generation.

“Many of the sources we’ve relied on for decades are closing down,” said Orlowski, of Eugene Water and Electric Board.

Pacific Power, a division of PacifiCorp, plans to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions for all of its electricity sold to Oregon customers by 2040. To do this, the utility aims to add about 9,000 megawatts of wind, 8,000 megawatts of solar and other resources. (One megawatt equals one million watts.)

Pacific Power’s goal is to both replace traditional resources as they fall off and increase the overall portfolio. Other utilities have similar plans.

Energy experts say each clean power source has pros and cons.

According to a McKinsey & Company report, utility-scale solar and wind farms require at least 10 times as much space per unit of power as coal- and gas-powered plants.

Developers will undoubtedly struggle to figure out where to build wind and solar without running into permitting problems, community opposition or land use obstacles.

“You can’t just say, ‘I’m going to build a wind farm over here,’” said Bose, of WSU.

Some renewables are also intermittent, meaning they only produce power when the wind blows or the sun shines.

Other types of clean energy show potential but have drawbacks.

Experts say offshore wind shows promise but remains a “wild card.”

Hydrogen is another promising clean energy source. Hydrogen fuel cells produce electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen atoms. The technology, however, remains costly.

“Hydrogen is talked about the most but is probably the furthest from being activated,” said Bose, of WSU. He said the manufacturing requires “massive infrastructure” and is “hugely expensive.”

Utilities are also exploring small modular nuclear reactors and other resources.

Many researchers say traditional resources are disappearing too fast — before new ones can take their place. While some clean energy sources show potential, they say, each will take time to get raw materials for, design, site, permit and build. Researchers are also concerned a worker shortage will make it unlikely or impossible to meet policymakers’ timelines.

Storage

As the U.S. relies more on intermittent resources, energy storage facilities will become crucial. For example, when the wind is blowing, the power it generates will need to be stored for use when the wind is not blowing.

The Department of Energy estimates that depending on the mix of energy sources and infrastructure, America could need between 210 to 930 gigawatts of installed storage by 2050. That would be a massive leap from the mere 7.8 gigawatts of utility-scale battery storage operating in the U.S. last year, according to the Energy Information Administration.

“Energy storage is critical. It’s the holy grail,” said Wiggins, of Portland General Electric.

PGE has recently bought or begun construction of hundreds of megawatts of storage systems across Oregon.

David Eskelsen, spokesman for the utility PacifiCorp, said between 2023 and 2042, PacifiCorp plans to build 8,095 megawatts of “storage resources,” including batteries and pumped hydro.

Although utilities have bold visions for expanding storage, experts say doing so will be challenging due to labor shortages, limited manufacturing capacity and opposition to mining the raw materials needed for storage batteries.

Growing the grid

America’s electrical grid is an engineering marvel: a web of transmission towers and power lines stretching thousands of miles, carrying electricity across vast distances from where it is generated and stored to homes and businesses.

Researchers say the grid, however, is overtaxed and insufficient to meet future transmission needs. That means, they say, the U.S. needs to strengthen and expand its grid. Even if the U.S. managed to produce enough power to meet consumers’ needs, it would be all for naught if there wasn’t a way to move the power from the source to the user.

In addition to exploring how to build new lines, some researchers are looking for ways to enhance existing grid infrastructure, said Dagle, the transmission reliability expert.

But growing and enhancing the grid will not happen quickly or easily. Experts say obstacles stand in the way: regulations, supply chain problems, labor shortages, geographical barriers and opposition from rural community members who are troubled by the idea of having massive transmission towers on or near their properties.

Potential blackouts

The question consumers are asking is: Will the power fail?

Victor, of UC-San Diego, said he is not worried about power outages because he said no utility or politician wants to be responsible for rolling blackouts. He predicts if it looks like power supply will fall short, officials will relax rules or change timelines.

Fedor, of the Hoover Institution, conceded that is possible. He gave an example: California planned to retire the state’s last operating nuclear facility by 2025. Then, last year, lawmakers scrambled to preserve the plant’s life through the next decade to ensure electricity reliability.

Fedor, however, is less optimistic than Victor. He said he is concerned America’s technologies and political priorities “(have) put us on a path toward a less reliable grid.”

Bose, of WSU, said “people are starting to put the cart before the horse,” pushing electrification without sufficient power.

Utility leaders are racing to prevent supply from falling short of demand.

“If we do nothing, demand is going to outstrip supply,” said Wiggins, of Portland General Electric.

Edmonds, of the Western Power Pool, said utilities are mapping out plans to keep the lights on.

“There are integrated resource plans across the West that are citing similar issues,” she said. “They have retirements. They have clean energy resources rolling on. At some point in their 10- or 20-year forecasts, they’re calling for vast quantities of energy storage. And in some cases, they are assuming or relying on capability of these future resources that don’t exactly exist today.”

Edmonds predicts innovation will catch up with policy, but not everyone shares her optimism. Many predict that in the coming decade, supply will lag behind demand in some regions and the reserve margin, meaning energy surplus, will shrink in other regions.

A short-term outlook from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC, paints a grim picture, forecasting two-thirds of the U.S. will be at risk of electricity outages this summer, including nearly everyone west of the Mississippi.

A longer-term NERC assessment forecasts the energy reserve margin (surplus) will shrink from 38.5% in 2023 to 10.7% in 2032 in the California-Mexico region and will drop from 22.7% to 4.5% in the Western Power Pool region, which includes Oregon, Washington and Idaho. Thinner reserves mean higher blackout risks during extreme weather.

Forecast models from the Energy Information Administration estimate that in 2033, average annual power supply will slightly exceed consumer demand in the Northwest but will fall short of demand in parts of California. EIA staff say power can be moved from surplus areas to deficit areas, preventing blackouts. Not everyone, however, views that as realistic.

“People say: Build more transmission to share across geographic regions. I think that’s a limited solution politically and technically,” said Fedor, of Hoover.

What are utilities doing?

Electricity companies are racing to acquire additional resources.

“We’re actively trying to secure additional power,” said Wiggins, of Portland General Electric.

Many utilities have also joined Western Power Pool’s new Western Resource Adequacy Program, or WRAP, which will act as a planning tool and insurance policy. Utilities in WRAP will create a shared pool of energy resources they can tap into during crises. No one knows yet how successful the experimental program will be.

Utilities also aim to reduce consumer demand for electricity by offering rebates. Portland General Electric, for example, is experimenting with a demand response program that pays customers not to use power at certain times. For example, said Wiggins, PGE might pay a warehouse to voluntarily turn off its fresh produce cooler for an hour during peak demand.

What’s next?

Although no one has a crystal ball, nearly everyone agrees America’s energy landscape will radically change in the coming decade, with many risks and unknowns.

“You have a lot of forces that are all coming to play at the same moment in history,” said Edmonds, of Western Power Pool.

This is the first installment of a two-part series on the transformation of the U.S. power grid to renewable resources.