With California and other states steering toward net zero emission cars and trucks and phasing out gas- and diesel-powered vehicles, the American Transportation Research Institute set out to ascertain what would be required.

The institute’s assessment found that electrifying all U.S. vehicles would be a massive undertaking costing untold billions of dollars.

“It still boggles my mind,” said Jeffrey Short, ATRI vice president and lead author of the report.

“What we found were three very large challenges,” he said.

First is the amount of electricity required. Nationwide electricity generation would need to increase 40% to power the entire U.S. fleet of trucks.

“So we’re going to have to make a lot more electricity — it’s a whopping amount of electricity,” he said.

The second challenge is electric vehicle and battery production, as well as battery weights.

Lithium ion batteries require lithium, cobalt, graphite and nickel. For lithium alone, the U.S. would require nearly 35 years of current global production to electrify all vehicles.

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“It makes me nervous as far as what’s the price of lithium going to be,” he said.

The U.S. long-haul trucking fleet alone would require more than 7.1 million tons of the four minerals to outfit the fleet with batteries one time.

“That is simply a lot, a large amount of material, and where is it going to come from?” he said.

The U.S. doesn’t produce enough of the minerals, he said.

In the case of lithium, the U.S. has one active mine, which represents 1% of global production.

Battery weight is another issue. A typical long-haul truck weighs 18,000 to 19,000 pounds. Electric long-haul trucks would weigh about 30,000 pounds, and that eats into the amount of cargo that can be carried, he said.

The third challenge is the shortage of chargers. Chargers — and lots of them — would have to be installed at every truck stop. Electricity will also have to be available at those truck stops, many of which are rural and don’t have adequate transmission lines, he said.

And don’t forget parking. There are 313,000 truck parking spaces in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Transportation, and that is already not enough. Each space will require a charger.

“There’s going to have to be a giant investment in chargers, and then there’s going to have to be maintenance,” he said.

One study found that nearly 23% of the direct current fast-chargers in the San Francisco Bay area were out of service.

Challenge 1: Electricity and demand

ATRI’s study breaks down each challenge, starting with the need to generate and transmit more electricity.

More than 136 billion gallons of gasoline and nearly 44 billion gallons of diesel were consumed on the nation’s roads and highways in 2019. Replacing that energy with electricity will require significantly more electricity — lots more.

Powering the 253.8 million U.S. light-duty vehicles — such as automobiles, pickup trucks and SUVs — would require an additional 1,039.9 billion kilowatt-hours annually. That’s 26.3% of current U.S. electricity consumption.

Powering the additional 12.3 million trucks in the U.S. fleet would require an additional 553.5 billion kilowatt-hours, representing 14% of U.S. electricity consumption.

All told, electrifying the U.S. fleet of cars and trucks would require at least a 40.3% increase in electricity generation.

Doing that won’t be easy.

The first issue is the aging electrical infrastructure. The average age of power plants in the U.S. is 68 years for hydropower, 46 years for coal and 41 years for nuclear.

“Aging infrastructure does not benefit from the most recent advances in technology, and it is ultimately less reliable. Older infrastructure is also closer to its end of usable life, and thus will need costly replacement in the near term,” the analysts said in the report.

The distribution system is also aging. A 2020 Department of Energy report estimated 70% of power transformers and transmission lines were more than 25 years old. A 2021 report by the National Conference of State Legislatures estimated 60% of distribution lines have outlived their 50-year life expectancy.

The second issue is electrical outages could halt surface transportation.

“The convergence of an aging electrical grid, severe weather and the limitations of renewable energy sources have resulted in the increased length and frequency of power outages,” the analysts said.

In 2020, there were 180 major power outages compared to about two dozen in 2000, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Challenge 2: Electric vehicle production

Electrifying the U.S. vehicle fleet will require a new set of supply chains, including mining of raw materials to produce, maintain and recycle batteries.

Electrifying the entire U.S. vehicle fleet would require:

• 5.4 million tons of cobalt — 28.8 years of current global production.

• 3.8 million tons of lithium — 34.9 years of current global production.

• 29.6 million tons of graphite — 26.8 years of current global production.

• 18.8 million tons of nickel — 6.3 years of global production.

The analysts noted a few caveats to their analysis.

“First, the fleet would not be immediately replaced, so this demand would not rise at a single moment in time. On the other hand, all of this demand for materials would be new and is in addition to what is currently produced,” they said. “Finally, this new production level would only supply a single round of batteries.”

Replacement batteries would be needed approximately every 6.2 years.

They also pointed out the analysis does not include battery material demand for other countries.

“This analysis does not presume that material supplies will quickly be exhausted, as known reserves and requisite mining activities are certain to increase. But the overall quantities of materials needed and availability of those materials will all play a role in pricing and availability,” the analysts said.

Production of cobalt, lithium, graphite and nickel is dominated by nine countries, and the largest known reserves are found in 14 countries.

“To ensure truck adoption occurs, it is critical the raw materials for the batteries are readily available from diverse, redundant resources — and that supply is free of disruptions,” the analysts said.

One method of reducing battery costs and side-stepping geopolitical issues would be to increase domestic mining, they said.

For trucks, the battery will likely be the largest cost. ACT Research, which studies the transportation system, estimates the battery pack for a Class 8 truck, which includes semi-trucks, would account for about 55% of the cost of the truck.

A new Class 8 diesel truck now costs about $135,000-$150,000. A comparable Class 8 electric truck could cost $400,000-$500,000.

Operating margins for truckload carriers were about 10% of revenue in 2021.

That increase in equipment costs “would most certainly erase these margins unless costs can be passed on to the consumer,” the analysts said.

The weight of the battery is also an issue, as it could substantially limit long-haul capacity. An electric truck would weigh 32,016 pounds compared with a long-haul internal combustion engine truck weight of 18,216 pounds. With weight limits on roads, that increased battery weight decreases available cargo weight — which translates into lost revenue.

There are also concerns that mining the raw materials will have large global impacts related to environmental and social issues, according to the report.

Challenge 3: Truck charging requirements

The entire 12.3 million truck fleet would require an estimated 535.5 billion kilowatt-hours annually.

Electrification of the 2.9 million long-haul fleet — requiring 417.4 billion kWh annually — would be particularly challenging, as less than half of the nation’s highways are in charger-accessible areas.

Federal regulations that dictate how long commercial truck drivers must rest, the current truck parking shortage and the charging needs mean space will get even tighter at truck stops.

Drivers must take 10 hours of rest to earn 14 hours of available on-duty time. For long-haul drivers, it is imperative that battery charging take place during that mandatory rest period.

“Additionally, this charging will have to take place at existing truck parking; it would be cost prohibitive to build an entirely new parking and charging network in the U.S.,” the analysts said.

There are now about 313,000 truck parking spaces in the country, including 40,000 spaces at public rest areas where commercial activity — including charging — is not allowed under a 1956 federal law.

Emerging issues about charging at private truck stops include disputes between truck stop operators and electric utilities over who is responsible for infrastructure development, oversight of sales and rates.

Currently, refueling is generally a quick process — 5 to 15 minutes — and is done while a driver is on duty. Electric charging takes much longer and will need to occur more frequently due to the shorter driving ranges of battery electric vehicles. Depending on battery capacity, charging a long-haul electric truck could take 3 to 6 hours.

Using a nearly 1:1 ratio of chargers to trucks identified as needed by the California Energy Commission, the analysts found the U.S. would need a direct-current fast charger at nearly every one of the 313,000 truck spaces. Each charger would have to support at least five charging events of 3.4 hours per day to meet the needs of the long-haul fleet.

“Such efficient scheduling of chargers appears to be impossible — myriad truck drivers simply could not conduct their normal business operations while at the same time precisely coordinating commercial charger use with other truck drivers,” the analysts said.

Likewise, drivers will likely charge while taking their mandatory 10-hour rest break, which is more time than charging takes. But the vehicle cannot move since drivers cannot go on duty to move the truck during a rest.

Based on a charger delivering five 3.4-hour charges per day, the long-haul fleet would need 320,571 chargers at a cost of at least $35.9 billion.

“In all likelihood, the number of charging spaces required far exceed available parking space, and thus the additional chargers would be needed at shipper and carrier facilities or in the form of new public parking capacity,” the analysts said.

In the U.S. trucking industry, last-mile delivery companies are already becoming electrified, and most have a pledge and timeline to get to 100% electric trucks, said Dave Schaller, industry engagement officer for the North American Council for Freight Efficiency.

“Terminal tractors in the lots of warehouses and distribution centers are the ideal first steps for fleet electrification. We have reached the point now that shorter regional haul tractors are viable as well,” he said.

All of these applications can succeed solely on depot-based charging systems, he said. NACFE’s 2023 Run on Less — Electric DEPOT demonstration was a success, he said.

To grow beyond the 250- to 400-mile range of current class 8 trucks and enable long-haul EV trucking, two core changes need to occur, he said.

“First, the battery power density needs to grow, and it is very reasonable to expect this change to happen as companies work on this subject every day for cars, forklifts, construction equipment and other machinery in addition to trucks,” he said.

The second area is the development of charging facilities away from the fleet’s home depots. Companies such as Terawatt, WattEV and One Energy are already creating the first of these locations, he said.

“High density population routes in states with government support and positive EV incentives are likely to be first, so I-5 and I-95 are reasonable first steps,” he said. Those interstates run north-south on the east and west coasts.

How long it would take to switch the entire U.S. vehicle fleet to electric batteries is a big question, ATRI’s Short said.

Each challenge would take years to tackle.

“I think it would take longer than the ambitious timeline California has,” he said.

In its goal to be carbon neutral by 2045, California is requiring increased sales of electric vehicles and has set a goal of 100% electric medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks operating on its roadways by 2045.

It took 50 years for U.S. transportation to move from horse and buggy to having ubiquitous vehicle access and gasoline available everywhere. If the same is true for switching to electric vehicles, it would take until 2074, he said.

“I think it’s important for everyone to remember this might not be the solution … we shouldn’t put all our eggs in one basket,” he said. “I think we need to look at everything.”

Investment needs to go into research. Hydrogen or renewable diesel might be the way to go, he said.

Personally, he doesn’t believe electrification is the only option to reduce carbon emissions.

“I think it’s important not to forget that electricity still has a carbon footprint and will for many years to come,” Short said.

By 2050, natural gas will still be the most prevalent source of electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

“It’s important folks understand and realize the realities,” he said.

It’s easy to say trucking companies should switch to electric vehicles, but “it’s a big challenge and a lot of it is in the hands of someone else, such as utility companies and vehicle manufacturers,” he said.