SPOKANE — A cooler spring will give way to a slightly warmer summer in the Pacific Northwest, with mostly balanced precipitation throughout, according to weatherman Art Douglas.

“Overall, I think you’re going to eke out with relatively good weather for your spring and summer crops,” said Douglas, professor emeritus of atmospheric sciences at Creighton University in Nebraska.

He spoke Feb. 6 at the Spokane Ag Show.

Douglas pointed to an El Nino occurring along the equator, and warm water pools in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, which are “totally out of whack” with El Nino.

Regardless of El Nino, a warm northwest Pacific and warm tropical Atlantic typically mean “a very warm and dry” mid-section of the U.S.

“We’re probably going to see problems with summer crops in the Midwest,” he said.

February outlook

The forecast favors a deep trough off the Gulf of Alaska and into the Midwest, while the warm Atlantic will keep the moisture farther north than normal, he said.

“That’s why you’ve ended up with relatively good moisture during this El Nino event,” Douglas told the farmers.

But the weather is shifting to a more typical El Nino pattern, with a “very strong” low pressure trough off the West Coast.

“Now the storms are getting into California — they have a tremendous amount of flooding,” Douglas said. “It means your moisture is gradually going to go downhill as we keep on going with this El Nino event during February and March.”

High pressure ridges in Canada will keep all cold to the north.

“As we go forward, it’s very unlikely we’re going to see any kind of arctic outbreaks during the month of February into the United States,” Douglas said. “Most of the moisture is going to be way far south, and the arctic cold is going to be way north (over) Canada.”

SpringThe trough will move farther north, but with a “rapidly weakening” El Nino, won’t be as strong as it was.

“The moisture’s not going to be as intense as what we’re seeing right now,” Douglas said.

The Pacific Northwest will dip below normal precipitation in March and April, then start picking up moisture again in May.

“From a crop and grain standpoint, the fact it’s going to be wetter at the very end of spring is going to be a lot better for you,” Douglas said. “I think you can handle the dryness of March and April because you’ve already had relatively good moisture so far the last two to three months. I think this is a pretty favorable forecast.”

Temperatures should be slightly higher in March, then at or near normal the rest of the spring, he said.

Summer

Douglas anticipates a normal transition from El Nino to La Nina, with a warm and dry pattern for the U.S. beginning in July and August.

“Temperatures really flip from cool in the West to warm in the West,” he said.

West of the Cascade Range will see below-normal precipitation due to stronger high-pressure ridges over the Pacific Ocean, but east of the Cascades will have near-normal precipitation.

“Temperatures are slightly above normal, but those are not particularly hot temperatures, only about a half a degree or a degree above normal,” Douglas said.

Moisture will remain slightly above normal, then turn “quite dry” in August.

“Which could be a problem for early planting,” Douglas said.

September

The western U.S., from California into eastern Oregon and southeastern Washington, will have above-normal precipitation.

“There’s an indication that moisture is going to increase going into the fall — something that would be really good then for grain planting,” Douglas said.

Douglas compared the current year’s conditions to historical data to find years that were similar. He expects 2024 to most resemble parts of 1973, 1995, 1998, 2007 and 2010.

Wildfire season

The western U.S. will move from a wet June into a warmer and drier July and August. By September, it will be “pretty warm,” Douglas said.

“I think California, potentially, has a very dangerous situation because they’ve had so much moisture,” he said. “They’re going to have so much fuel come the summer and the fall, that their fires could be really bad.”